Der Beschäftigungseffekt geringerer Sozialabgaben in Deutschland. Wie beeinflusst die Wahl des Simulationsmodells das Ergebnis?

Abstract

This study analyses to what extent political advice may depend on research instruments. As an example, a cut in the social contributions rate, financed by an increase in VAT or by a flat-rate premium, was simulated with three alternative macro models. The general equilibrium model PACE-L, the long term structural model IAB/INFORGE and the short term business cycle model IAB/RWI all contain the main components of the theoretical analysis. These are labour demand, depending on wages, as well as wage setting through bargaining. However, the models put different emphasis on the main factors that influence the employment effect of the partial refinancing of the social security system, namely labour costs, macroeconomic demand and the shift of the tax burden. The maximum employment effect is found by the general equilibrium model in a flat-rate premium case for everyone. It amounts to 0.56 %. In the only negative case, employment declines by 0.05 %. Via moderate wage claims, employees can promote the employment effect of the reform in theory as well as in all the simulation models.