Abstract
Currently there are increasing land-cover and land-management issues related to oil palm plantations. Palm oil is highly valuable and it is added to numerous commodities internationally with Indonesia being the most voluminous producer. The cultivation of oil palm affects the environment negatively, per se, threatening plantation sustainability from deforestation. Furthermore, the fungus Ganoderma boninense causes basal stem rot of oil palm, a major problem for plantation managers in Indonesia. Suitable future climate for growth of Indonesian oil palm, determined by employing the simulation programme, CLIMEX, has already been employed to create scenarios of oil palm mortality and diseases. This was achieved by combining CLIMEX with narrative models, a technique often employed in climate studies. Determinations of the percentage of oil palm that survive climate and do not have basal stem rot have also been provided. The current paper considers these scenarios for Indonesia and regions for the first time. The models assume no change in the future climate scenarios and that effective mitigation is not taken. The effects on plantation sustainability are considered. Climate will not affect the incidence of basal stem rot greatly until 2050, but the situation will deteriorate thereafter. Sumatra and Java are especially affected and plantations may be unsustainable quickly, whereas Papua and Sulawesi may be able to sustain the crop longer. However, deforestation in Papua and Sulawesi is highly undesirable. Methods to manage climate effects on oil palm and reduce basal stem rot are described. Plantation managers can use the earlier assessments herein to indicate if the later ones are accurate and plan to ameliorate the problems. Conclusions indicate that palm oil production may be unsustainable in Indonesia by 2050 from loss of plantations thus requiring action immediately.
Highlights
There are increasing land-cover change and associated land-management issues in relation to oil palm plantations [1]
The current paper considers these scenarios for Indonesia and regions for the first time
Lam et al [8] indicate that most Indonesian oil palm are located in Sumatra and Kalimantan and that the greatest potential for developing new plantations are in Sulawesi and Papua, it is essential to preserve the natural forest for environmental reasons
Summary
There are increasing land-cover change and associated land-management issues in relation to oil palm plantations [1]. Demand for palm oil has transformed these landscapes in numerous ways including by highly increased deforestation compared to the previous century. There is increasing information on how 21st-century climate change is likely to decrease the sustainability of plantations with serious implications for food security, biodiversity loss and the economies of palm oil producing, and other countries, that use the oil in numerous commodities [2,3,4,5,6]. Lam et al [8] indicate that most Indonesian oil palm are located in Sumatra and Kalimantan and that the greatest potential for developing new plantations are in Sulawesi and Papua, it is essential to preserve the natural forest for environmental reasons. In 2009, 65, 25 and 3% of plantations were located in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi respectively with the remainder being loosely distributed over other regions including Papua and Java [9]
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