Abstract
Migration risk assessment of the injected CO2 is one of the fi rst and indispensable steps in determining locations for the implementation of projects for carbon dioxide permanent disposal in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Within the phase of potential storage characterization and assessment, it is necessary to conduct a quantitative risk assessment, based on dynamic reservoir models that predict the behaviour of the injected CO2, which requires good knowledge of the reservoir conditions. A preliminary risk assessment proposed in this paper can be used to identify risks of CO2 leakage from the injection zone and through wells by quantifying hazard probability (likelihood) and severity, in order to establish a risk-mitigation plan and to engage prevention programs. Here, the proposed risk assessment for the injection well is based on a quantitative risk matrix. The proposed assessment for the injection zone is based on methodology used to determine a reservoir probability in exploration and development of oil and gas (Probability of Success, abbr. POS), and modifi ed by taking into account hazards that may lead to CO2 leakage through the cap rock in the atmosphere or groundwater. Such an assessment can eliminate locations that do not meet the basic criteria in regard to short-term and long-term safety and the integrity of the site.
Highlights
The European Union greenhouse gas emission reduction target of at least 40% compared to the 1990 level can be achieved only by applying efficient technologies, which give reliable results in a very short period of time
If the estimated probability falls in the range from 0.5 to 1.0, the reservoir is of high enough quality that the site can be evaluated as the location of low to moderate risk of migration of the injected CO2, and can be proposed for further consideration
Since the term of “risk” of an event within the oil and gas system can be considered as the equivalent to the concept of probability of reservoir discovery, to assess the likelihood of injected CO retention within the reservoir, the Probability of Success (POS) methodology (White, 1993; Malvić, 2003; Malvić and Rusan 2009; Novak 2015) further modified according to the criteria important in terms of storage complex efficiency and preservation is suggested
Summary
The European Union greenhouse gas emission reduction target of at least 40% compared to the 1990 level can be achieved only by applying efficient technologies, which give reliable results in a very short period of time. CCS) considers the removal of CO2 generated during industrial fuel combustion processes, its transportation and injection into underground storage formations, such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs, coal seams, deep reservoir rocks saturated with salt water and salt domes. The suitability of geological structures has to be assessed when planning permanent CO2 disposal. The suitability evaluation includes capacity, injectivity and containment of a geological storage assessment. The assessment takes into consideration the basic criteria for CO storage through the evaluation of certain parameters, such as porosity, permeability, depth of geological structures, seal thickness and impermeability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2005; Loizzo et al, 2010)
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