Abstract
Abstract. Several previous studies on tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment have attempted to quantify the relationship between TC damage and its elements (i.e. exposure, vulnerability, and hazard). For hazard parameters, TC intensity (e.g. central minimum pressure, maximum wind speed) and size information (e.g. 30 knot radius of the TC) have been widely utilized. Our risk analysis of 85 TCs that made landfall in South Korea from 1979 to 2010, however, suggests that a small deviation of the TC track in the west–east direction (≤250 km, smaller than the average radius of TC) has a more dominant effect on the extent and distribution of TC damage than TC intensity or size. This significant track dependency of TC damage exists because the TC track is responsible for the realization of hazard change from potential to active. More specifically, although two TCs may have the same intensity and size, locally experienced rainfall and wind speed can vary according to their tracks due to topography. These results suggest that track information should be considered more carefully in assessments of future TC risk.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the biggest concerns for disaster management
We refer to heavy rainfall and wind gusts induced at the local area by the TC as active hazards, and we consider the TC system’s minimum central pressure, maximum wind speed, and size over South Korea as potential hazards
The average zonal distance between the mean tracks of east-types and west-types was only about 250 km, hazards and damages caused by the TCs are significantly different depending on the four TC track patterns at the 99 % confidence level based on the Kruskal–Wallis test (Fig. 3)
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the biggest concerns for disaster management. As a single natural hazard worldwide, TCs are the costliest natural disaster (http://emdat.be, last access: 26 November 2015). The deadliest damage by typhoon Haiyan (2013) in the Philippines primarily came about because the TC penetrated Tacloban, which is located in a lowlying area near the ocean, such that most of the damage arose from storm surge (Ching et al, 2015). In both cases, if the TCs went through a different area, avoiding the mountains and lowland, the result could have been much less devastating.
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