Dependence of late glacial sea-level predictions on 3D Earth structure

Abstract

<p><span>Glacial isostatic adjustment is dominated by Earth rheology resulting in a variability of relative sea-level (RSL) predictions of more than 100 meters during the last glacial cycle. Seismic tomography models reveal significant lateral variations in seismic wavespeed, most likely corresponding to variations in temperature and hence viscosity. Therefore, the replacement of 1D Earth structures by a 3D Earth structure is an essential part of recent research to reveal the impact of lateral viscosity contrasts and to achieve a more consistent view on solid-Earth dynamics. Here, we apply the VIscoelastic Lithosphere and MAntle model VILMA to predict RSL during the last deglaciation. We create an ensemble of geodynamically constrained 3D Earth structures which is based on seismic tomography models while considering a range of conversion factors to transfer seismic velocity variations into viscosity variations. For a number of globally distributed sites, we discuss the resulting variability in RSL predictions, compare this with regionally optimized 1D Earth structures, and validate the model results with relative sea-level data (sea-level indicators). This study is part of the German Climate Modeling initiative PalMod aiming the modeling of the last glacial cycle under consideration of a coupled Earth system model, i.e. including feedbacks between ice-sheets and the solid Earth.</span></p>