Denuclearization's Indirect Consequences

Abstract

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has led to a global review of nuclear power. Germany has declared a complete phasing out of its 17 nuclear reactors by 2022 ([ 1 ][1]); the Swiss government has voted not to replace their nuclear plants, which means they all have to be decommissioned by 2034 ([ 2 ][2]); and the French government has committed to reducing the share of nuclear power in its energy mix. Although we do not discount the appeal of a cleaner and nonnuclear world, we caution that widespread, rapid denuclearization may well have unintended consequences, given that nuclear power accounts for 13.5% of global electricity production ([ 3 ][3]). The acute shortfall from a sudden, rapid denuclearization of electricity production can only feasibly be compensated by increasing the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in much greater emissions of greenhouse gases and worsening the climate change problem. Given the current poor economic outlook in nuclear-powered economies such as Japan, the loss of nuclear expertise as an export industry and the added burden of further fossil fuel imports are likely to force these nations to abandon their emission targets. Developing emitter nations such as India and China will be even less likely to commit to extensive emission cuts. Further down the line, the heavier involvement of major manufacturing economies, such as Japan and Germany, in the global oil and gas market could create increased market competition for these finite resources, which could in turn increase oil prices. Given that all nations pay about the same price for primary energy sources, the inflated electricity prices would hit the poorest nations the hardest. Reduction of affordable electricity access would exacerbate numerous public health, education, and gender equality problems, making it harder to meet UN Millennium Development goals. Although there are calls to ramp up renewable energy production, it would be difficult to scale up existing technologies quickly enough to offset the deficit, given the substantial investment in required infrastructure, which cannot be recovered if the electrical generation method is changed, and the inertia that pervades the energy sector ([ 4 ][4]). Most of the problems associated with nuclear power can be resolved with newer, modified technologies, which could make it safer to use. Given the value of nuclear energy in combating climatic change in the short to medium term, let's not be too hasty in phasing it out completely. 1. [↵][5] 1. D. Jarn, 2. S. Korolczuk , Environ. Polit. 21, 159 (2012). [OpenUrl][6][CrossRef][7][Web of Science][8] 2. [↵][9] World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Power in Switzerland ([www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf86.html][10]). 3. [↵][11] 1. P. L. Joskow, 2. J. E. Parsons , . Econ. Energ. Environ. Sci. 1, 99 (2012). [OpenUrl][12] 4. [↵][13] 1. S. O. Negro, 2. F. Alkemade, 3. M. P. Hekkert , . Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 16, 3836 (2012). [OpenUrl][14][CrossRef][15][Web of Science][16] [1]: #ref-1 [2]: #ref-2 [3]: #ref-3 [4]: #ref-4 [5]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [6]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DEnviron.%2BPolit.%26rft.volume%253D21%26rft.spage%253D159%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1080%252F09644016.2011.643374%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [7]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1080/09644016.2011.643374&link_type=DOI [8]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=000301793500009&link_type=ISI [9]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [10]: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf86.html [11]: #xref-ref-3-1 View reference 3 in text [12]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DEcon.%2BEnerg.%2BEnviron.%2BSci.%26rft.volume%253D1%26rft.spage%253D99%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [13]: #xref-ref-4-1 View reference 4 in text [14]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DRenew.%2BSust.%2BEnerg.%2BRev.%26rft.volume%253D16%26rft.spage%253D3836%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1016%252Fj.rser.2012.03.043%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [15]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1016/j.rser.2012.03.043&link_type=DOI [16]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=000306860700026&link_type=ISI