Abstract
Estimation of an individual’s age has important applications in forensics. In young individuals, it often relies on separate evaluations of permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) development. Here, we analysed the age prediction performance of combined information from PT and TM in an unusual sample of healthy Somalis, born and living in Finland. PT development was staged according to Demirjian et al. (Hum Biol, 1973) and TM development according to Köhler et al. (Ann Anat, 1994), using panoramic radiographs from 803 subjects (397 males, 406 females) aged 3–23 years. A sex-specific Bayesian age-estimation model for the multivariate distribution of the stages conditional on age was fitted on PT, TM and PT and TM combined. The age-estimation performances were validated and quantified. The approach combining PT and TM only overestimated age with an ME of − 0.031 years in males and − 0.011 years in females, indicating the best age prediction performance.
Highlights
Forensic age assessment among the living is mainly needed in cases where the real age of unaccompanied asylum seekers is unknown, or in criminal proceedings [1] and sometimes competitive sports [2]
The first study hypothesis was that in a Somali sample the age prediction performances will improve by combining data of permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) development
The hypothesis was not rejected —the PT + TM approach compared to PM and TM alone performed the best, overestimating age by only a mean of 11.3 days in males and a mean of 4.0 days in females
Summary
Forensic age assessment among the living is mainly needed in cases where the real age of unaccompanied asylum seekers is unknown, or in criminal proceedings [1] and sometimes competitive sports [2]. Improved age-estimation results are obtained by combining diverse age predictors––frequently, dental and skeletal parameters [1, 22,23,24,25,26]. In children and sub-adults, permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) development have been used as combined predictors [27,28,29,30]. The wide prediction intervals in age estimations based on third molar development are problematic (mean width of 95% prediction intervals approximately 6 years) [9, 31, 32]. Recent scientific evidence shows that ethnic differences are minimal in age estimations based on tooth development [11, 33, 34].
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