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Abstract
Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.
Highlights
Large carnivores live at low densities, and in many parts of the world their conservation is dependent on integrating carnivores into multi-use landscapes [1]
To avoid overfitting, we made two main restrictions: 1) We never fitted models with both roe deer density and sheep density in the same part of the model, and 2) we considered only main effects ( a ‘‘biological’’ interaction might become evident depending on the structure of the two parts of the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model)
The ZINB model including the additive effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model, and the additive effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part of the model received most support (Table 3; Figure 2)
Summary
Large carnivores live at low densities, and in many parts of the world their conservation is dependent on integrating carnivores into multi-use landscapes [1]. Among the factors that have received attention in previous studies is the effect that distribution and density of wild ungulate prey might have on livestock losses [6]. The attraction model can explain elevated predation risk for livestock in areas with high densities of wild prey. The model proposes that locally high densities of wild prey will attract carnivores to these patches, and induce elevated risk for livestock. This model assumes that carnivore habitat use is a function of wild prey densities, and that livestock are depredated if they are encountered by chance while the carnivore is searching for wild prey. Previous studies supporting the energetic model have been conducted by comparing losses in areas of different densities of wild prey [15,16,17,18,19,20,21] or through scat analysis [6,12–
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