Density-dependence and winter weather as factors affecting the size of a population of Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria

Abstract

The results of annual censuses of a Golden Plover population in the Peak District, covering 24 years, are analysed. A strong density-dependent effect of the population in the previous year explained 26.7% of the variation in population growth. An additional 15.3% of the variation was accounted for by the severity of winter weather, as measured by mean monthly air temperature for November to February. There was no significant effect of weather during the breeding season upon Golden Plover population size, implying that any effects which spring and summer temperature or rainfall may have upon fledging success are masked by other factors. The importance of these results is discussed in the light of work on other wader species, and possible declines in Golden Plover numbers.