Dense station-based potential assessment for solar photovoltaic generation in China

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, China is vigorously promoting the development of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to replace traditional power supplies dominated by fossil fuels. A detailed potential assessment for solar PV generation will contribute to constructing and integrating a new power system with a high proportion of solar energy. In this study, we combined high-density and high-accuracy station-based solar radiation data from more than 2400 stations and a solar PV electricity generation model to map the technical potential for solar PV generation in China, while simultaneously considering land constraints through geographic information system technology. We found that the total installable capacity is at least 44,614.6 GW for China as a whole, resulting in an annual electricity generation potential of 72.7 PWh. However, the spatial distribution of solar PV potential does not match the electricity demand in China. Northwest China accounts for more than 95% of the total PV technical potential of China, but the power load centers are mainly located in eastern, southern, and central China, accounting for more than 70% of the total electricity consumption of the country. The challenges of solar PV development in China include grid integration and transmission from resource centers to load centers. The establishment and planning of new power systems based mainly on clean energy should facilitate the integration of fluctuating solar resources in China. This study will contribute to the planning and construction of solar PV systems in China.