Abstract
This study aimed to show maps and analyses that display dengue cases and weather-related factors on dengue transmission in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand, namely Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces. Data on the number of dengue cases and weather variables including rainfall, rainy day, mean temperature, min temperature, max temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure for the period from January 2015 to December 2019 were obtained from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health and the Meteorological Department of Southern Thailand, respectively. Spearman rank correlation test was performed at lags from zero to two months and the predictive modeling used time series Poisson regression analysis. The distribution of dengue cases showed that in Pattani and Yala provinces the most dengue cases occurred in June. Narathiwat province had the most dengue cases occurring in August. The air pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, rainy day, and min temperature are the main predictors in Pattani province, while air pressure, rainy day, and max/mean temperature seem to play important roles in the number of dengue cases in Yala and Narathiwat provinces. The goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the model fits the data reasonably well. The results provide scientific information for creating effective dengue control programs in the community, and the predictive model can support decision making in public health organizations and for management of the environmental risk area.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) is a major communicable disease and it is a continual public health problem, with mosquitoes carrying the disease
We aim to show maps and analyses that display dengue cases and weather-related factors in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand, namely, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces, as well as the effects of weather on dengue transmission using data from 2015–2019 with a predictive model, fit with time series Poisson regression approach
Our results show that rainfall and the number of rainy days were positively associated with dengue transmission in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand
Summary
Dengue fever (DF) is a major communicable disease and it is a continual public health problem, with mosquitoes carrying the disease. About 500,000 severe dengue cases with 12,500 deaths are reported annually [1]. Estimates that about 100 million DF infections occur annually and that approximately. 2.5 billion people live in countries where dengue is endemic [1]. Dengue viruses are transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti and possibly by Ae. albopictus in tropical and subtropical areas [2]. Dengue has become endemic in nearly 100 countries in Africa, the Americas, the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and the Western Pacific [3]. Thailand reported its first experience of dengue fever in 1949 [4] and the first outbreak of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was reported in Bangkok in 1958 [4]
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