Dengue Transmission Dynamics Analysis and Simulation in Minas Gerais - Brazil

Abstract

Dengue control is a challenging task due to the complexity of the factors that involve its spread. The use of mathematical models to investigate the spread of dengue allows us to understand its behavior and provide information for its eradication. In this work, the analysis and simulation of the dynamics of dengue transmission to the State of Minas Gerais-Brazil- was proposed. Mathematical models were simulated using free software Scilab. In order to assess the impact on the epidemiological curve of the disease, the main methods of mosquito population control (insecticide, larvicide and mechanical control) were analyzed. The results obtained showed that mechanical control was the most efficient method, with 9.3% reduction of cases, as it acts directly in the breeding sites. It is noteworthy that insecticide and larvicide control also had a positive impact on the epidemiological curve, with a decrease of 7.9% and 6.3% of cases, respectively. This justifies the use of these techniques concurrently with mechanical control. The use of projections obtained by mathematical models can guide decision making regarding the adoption of public policies to reduce dengue cases.