Dendroclimatological Analysis of Fir (A. borisii-regis) in Greece in the frame of Climate Change Investigation

Abstract

The potential correlation between fir tree-ring width (Abies borisii regis Mattf.) variability and the respective variability of the main climatic parameters in the region of University Forest of Pertouli (central Greece) are being analyzed in the current study, taking into consideration a 60-year period (1961–2020). Correlation and response function analyses were applied to examine the climate–tree-growth relationship. Precipitation was found to be the most crucial and driving factor that most intensively influences the tree growth of A. borisii-regis trees under Mediterranean climate conditions. It was evident that this species is characterized by drought sensitivity and even a short and mild drought event could significantly influence adversely its growth and productivity. June, May and July precipitation present the higher and statistically significant correlation of monthly precipitation with tree-ring width, affecting the ring-width variability by 31.2%. Temperature (mean, max or min) does not seem to highly influence the tree growth, despite the obvious and statistically significant trend increase that has been recorded in the last decades within the frame of climate change. June maximum temperature presents a strong negative correlation with tree-ring width, while April maximum temperature is positively correlated with tree-ring width. The combined impact of precipitation and max temperatures on tree-ring growth is 38.5%. Snow did not reveal any statistically significant correlation to tree-ring width, independent of the height of monthly snow accumulation. A. borisii-regis grown in high altitudes in the Mediterranean region demonstrate high adaptability to the recorded temperature increase and could potentially be able to adapt in future to even warmer climate conditions. The constructed tree-ring chronology could be utilized towards the implementation of further dendroclimatological analyses and climate reconstruction.