Dendrochronological Potential of Drought-Sensitive Tree Stands in Armenia for the Hydroclimate Reconstruction of the Lesser Caucasus

Magdalena Opała-Owczarek,Hovik Sayadyan,Trahel Vardanyan,Hrachuhi Galstyan,Piotr Owczarek

doi:10.3390/atmos12020153

Magdalena Opała-Owczarek, Hovik Sayadyan + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020153

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Abstract

Existing high-resolution reconstructions of hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus are lacking tree-ring data from Armenian Plateau, the most continental part of the region. Our research presents the first dendrochronological investigation in Armenia. Juniper and oak tree-ring width chronologies were constructed, the longest spanning the last 140 years. The positive influence of spring–summer precipitation and the negative influence of temperature suggest drought stress at the investigated sites. Moving correlation analysis indicated a significant change over time in the sensitivity of investigated trees to climatic variability; juniper, previously sensitive to both temperature and precipitation, has shown especially strong precipitation signals in the recent decades since the local climate has turned more arid. Ongoing climate change increases drought stress in juniper, which may have further consequences on semiarid ecosystems. Our results reveal multiannual droughts recorded by tree rings, emerging in most parts of the Black Sea–Caspian Sea region.

Highlights

The Armenian Plateau and the Lesser Caucasus region are vulnerable to climate change and its impact on hydrological balance [1]
To determine past climatic variability and to place current hydroclimatic conditions in a broader context, we addressed the following research questions: (1) Which climatic factors affect the radial growth of Juniperus polycarpos and Quercus macranthera? (2) What is the spatio-temporal stability of the obtained dendroclimatic signal? (3) What is the potential for palaeoclimatological reconstruction in the Armenian Plateau and the Lesser
The tree-ring chronologies of juniper for both sites were similar by visual comparison and by the statistical metrics (Table 2, Figure 3)

Summary

Introduction

The Armenian Plateau and the Lesser Caucasus region are vulnerable to climate change and its impact on hydrological balance [1]. The opposite trend was observed in precipitation, which decreased by almost 10% between 1935 and 2012. Over recent decades, the climate in the Ararat Valley, a central region of the country, has turned more arid and, most agricultural areas have undergone a process of desertification [2]. Plateau is relatively well isolated from marine influences, being the most continental part of the Caucasus [3]. As nearly half of the arable land in Armenia requires irrigation, the projected temperature rise, intensification of evaporation, and precipitation decrease will further worsen the desertification problem and opportunities for Armenian agriculture [4]

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