Demystifying a Hidden Trend: Do Temperature Variations Affect COVID-19 Virus Spread?

Abstract

A new type of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus, called as COVID-19, has started spreading around the globe like a fire after the very first case was reported, in December 2019. Till the end of March 2020, it infected around one million people and took life of more than thirty six thousand people. Data analytics of environmental factors and meteorological parameters like regional temperatures is necessary in order to understand the spread pattern, emergence, and re-emergence of a global pandemic like COVID-19. Therefore, in this study, by employing exploratory data analytics techniques, we aim to examine the relationship between average regional temperatures and the rate of spread of this virus across different regions around the globe. In this regard, an early stage outbreak analysis of COVID-19 spread has been presented to uncover any prospective impact of regional temperature variations on the initial spread rate of COVID-19. In order to reach an unbiased conclusion, a number of other variables are considered in this study which include population density, the count of days since a location encountered the very first case, the number of tests and the ratio of positive to total tests conducted per location. After in-depth analysis, we found that a bounded relationship between average temperature and spread rate of COVID-19 exists, that is, the spread rate of the virus is found to be slower in regions bearing extreme temperature. For validation, the extracted insights are discussed in the light of existing studies.