Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions: A Language for Managing Uncertainties in the Real-World Problems

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to introduce the Dempster-Shafer (DS) Theory of Belief Functions. The DS Theory is founded on the mathematical theory of probability and is a broader framework than the probability theory. It reduces to probability theoryunder a special condition. In addition, the article illustrates problems in representing pure positive, pure negative evidence, and ambiguity under probability theory and shows how this problem is resolved under DS Theory. Next, the article describes and illustrates Dempster’s rule of combination to combine two or more items of evidence. Also, the article introduces Evidential Reasoning approach and its applications to various disciplines such as accounting, auditing, information systems, and information quality. Examples are provided where DS Theory is being used for developing AI and Expert systems within the business disciplines and outside of the business disciplines.