Demonstration of the Temporal Evolution of Tropical Cyclone “Phailin” Using Gray-Zone Simulations and Decadal Variability of Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in a Warming Climate

Abstract

The intensity and frequency variability of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) have been amplified over the last few decades. The number of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) over the North Indian Ocean has increased over recent decades. “Phailin”, an extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS), occurred during 8–13 October 2013 over the Bay of Bengal and made landfall near the Gopalpur coast of Odisha at 12 UTC on 12 October. It caused severe damage here, as well as in the coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and adjoining regions due to strong wind gusts (~115 knot/h), heavy precipitation, and devastating storm surges. The fidelity of the WRF model in simulating the track and intensity of tropical cyclones depends on different cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. Thus, four sensitivity simulations were conducted for Phailin using double-moment and single-moment microphysical (MP) parameterization schemes. The experiments were conducted to quantify and characterize the performance of such MP schemes for Phailin. The simulations were performed by the advanced weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The model has two interactive domains covering the entire Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Odisha on 25 km and 8.333 km resolutions. Milbrandt–Yau (MY) double-moment and WRF single-moment microphysical schemes, with 6, 5, and 3 classes of hydrometeors, i.e., WSM6, WSM5, and WSM3, were used for the simulation. Experiments for Phailin were conducted for 126 h, starting from 00 UTC 08 October to 06 UTC 13 October 2013. It was found that the track, intensity, and structure of Phailin are highly sensitive to the different microphysical parameterization schemes. Further, the precipitation and cloud distribution were studied during the ESCS stage of Phailin. The microphysics schemes (MY, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6), along with Grell–Devenyi ensemble convection scheme predicted landfall of Phailin over the Odisha coast with significant track errors. Supply of moisture remains a more crucial component than SST and wind shear for rapid intensification of the Phailin 12 h before landfall over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, the comparison of cyclone formation between two decades 2001–2010 and 2011–2020 over the Bay of Bengal inferred that the increased numbers of VSCS are attributed to the supply of abundant moisture at low levels in the recent decade 2011–2020.