Demography, Disease, and Development: An Evolutionary Approach

Abstract

Emphasising the impact of diseases on history, the essay integrates demography, economics, evolutionary theory, and microbiology to explain the historical development of humanity and the economy, with specific application to American economic development prior to the twentieth century. The cultural development of prehistoric humanity is explained with simple demography in which the blooming of Paleolithic culture about 50,000 years ago also induced diseases of permanent settlements. A model of historical long-run growth incorporates transportation developments with cycles; one “virtuous” (expanding markets and specialisation), the other “vicious” (spread of diseases with increased trade). The New World conquest is viewed as almost entirely due to microbiology, evolutionary selection, and environmental conditions (climates and soils) as was the eventual peopling of different New World regions. American economic development prior to the twentieth century is considered the result of primarily demographic changes, transportation developments, and large-scale plantation slavery that combined to spread infectious diseases. This has implications for American economic development, Malthusian Doctrine, and issues of environmental degradation and sustainability.