Demography and Higher Education in Spain: Does Demography Matter?

Abstract

This paper sets out to assess the likely implications of demographic trends for the system of higher education in Spain in the near future. Since, as someone aptly put it, forecasting is always difficult, especially forecasting the future, some attention will also be paid to the recent past, in the hope that it can provide useful clues as to the determinants of enrolment trends in higher education. The first part deals with the peculiarities of population trends in Spain, which result from a comparison with other European countries. The second part is devoted to the formulation of future projections of enrolment in traditional higher education and to an assessment of the relative importance of demographic, as compared with other, factors. Some clarification in terminology relative to the Spanish educational system may be useful. By 'university' or 'higher education' we mean the traditional five- and sixyear degree courses. This does not include middle-length, i.e. three-year degree courses, for school teachers and 'technical engineers'. 'Upper secondary' refers to the old bachiller superior (ages 15, 16 and 17) and to the new Bachillerato (ages 15, 16, 17 and 18). 'Secondary' means the old Bachiller elemental, from ages 11 to 14, ending with a 'selective' examination. 'Selective' or 'selectivity' refers to examinations given by the state which are required to enter the next educational level. Nevertheless, when speaking about the 'selective character' of the first years in university we mean that students must remain in the same grade, taking the same courses one or several more years, until all first-year courses have been satisfactorily completed.