Abstract
Demographics are not quite destiny but do exert a powerful influence on future housingdemand. This paper examines how demographics shape demand and projects householdgrowth, second home and additional vacant unit demand, and replacement demand from2010 to 2020 under different assumptions. To analyze the housing supply-demand balanceentering 2010, results are presented from a backward look at long-run constructiondemand compared to actual new construction and from a simple econometric model oflong-run demand for starts using pooled metropolitan area data from 1982 to 2000.Implications of the housing and mortgage market meltdown for homeownership in theyears ahead are also explored.
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