Demographic transitions in South African cities: An analysis of household structures in the City of Tshwane

Abstract

AbstractThis study examines demographic transitions in South African neighbourhoods by analysing household composition, the relation between household types and neighbourhood characteristics, and patterns of convergence and divergence of household structures in the City of Tshwane between 1996 and 2011 at neighbourhood level. The study finds the growth of households linked to high population in‐migration, ageing populations, declining birth rates and declining household size. Nuclear family households are declining in favour of single person households and extended family households. Spatially, nuclear family households are also increasingly clustering, while single person households are concentrating in rural areas. Associated with these shifts in household structures is increasing poverty and decreasing real household incomes, despite decreasing unemployment. The regressions indicate a club convergence, with single person households tending to poverty, racial segregation, migration, and inferior housing, whereas nuclear family households tending to locational stability, newer and housing, and high owner occupancy in housing. There is also a club convergence towards extended family households among poorer households in previously disadvantaged areas. Household structures still evidence historical inequalities, but racial diversity is increasing in predominantly white neighbourhoods, in association with declining neighbourhood poverty in those areas.