Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview

Luca Salvati,Margherita Carlucci,Ilaria Zambon,Pere Serra

doi:10.3390/su11010242

Abstract

The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862–2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators’ trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars—approximately between 1921 and 1951—was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.

Highlights

While latent interplays between population trends and socioeconomic development have been frequently investigated at global, regional, and local spatial scales [1,2,3,4,5,6,7], feedback relationships between demographic dynamics and broader dimensions of sustainability were more rarely outlined in recent studies
The present study explores and clarifies the empirical linkages between population indicators along a complete demographic transition in Italy, defining homogeneous time periods and breakdowns according to the dominant socioeconomic context and possibly reflecting different ‘modernization’ stages
The approach proposed in this study allows identification of demographic patterns and processes while considering the evolving socioeconomic context over time [77,78,79]

Summary

Introduction

While latent interplays between population trends and socioeconomic development have been frequently investigated at global, regional, and local spatial scales [1,2,3,4,5,6,7], feedback relationships between demographic dynamics and broader dimensions of sustainability were more rarely outlined in recent studies In this regard, socioeconomic development and population trends were disentangled within the framework of ‘modernization’ theory, hypothesizing a process-based transformation from traditional (underdeveloped) societies to modern (wealthy or emerging) societies with an advanced economy [8,9]. The theory assumes that economic development depends primarily on technological import and several additional socio-political, productive, cultural, and institutional forces [10] This theory postulates that societies and economies develop in (more or less) predictable stages through which they become increasingly complex, proceeding through increasingly non-linear transitions and more articulated transformations of their components [11]. Modernization and the consequent socioeconomic development are intimately linked with demographic transitions

Methods

Results

Conclusion