Abstract
BackgroundThe sharp fall in fertility and mortality in Oman in recent time is quite stunning and more than expected, which is largely remained unexplored. This paper examined the characteristics of demographic changes and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges for Oman. It also discussed the policy options. Data come from the national level surveys and censuses as well as the World Population Prospects 2019 Revision of the United Nations.ResultsThe population of Oman grew from less than half a million in 1950 to more than four million in 2015, and expected to reach to seven million by 2055. After 1970, the annual growth rate of population accelerated due to increased immigration of working age population which has increased from less than 1% in 1970 to 44% in 2015. The fertility rate has declined from 8.6 births per woman in 1988 to 3.3 births per woman in 2008, a decline of 5.3 births per woman or 62% decline within a short period of 20 years. Under-five mortality also declined from 359 deaths per 1000 live births in 1950 to nine deaths per 1000 live births in 2015. Demographic transitions leads to many changes in the size and age structure of the population in Oman that open up the opportunities of accruing demographic dividend for economic development of the country. The dependency ratio has decreased from 98% in 1970 to 32% in 2015. Two opening of demographic dividend period has been observed—first from 1958 to 2000 and the second one has opened in 2010 which will reach its peak during the 2020s and will remain open until 2040.ConclusionOman has been experiencing a period of youth bulge over the years and it is expected to continue for at least next 20 years. To reap the benefits of the emerged demographic dividend, necessary steps need to be taken in a timely manner to develop human resources. Understanding the demographic challenges must be a priority for the government of Oman, and formulate policies to harvest the benefits of the demographic windows.
Highlights
The sharp fall in fertility and mortality in Oman in recent time is quite stunning and more than expected, which is largely remained unexplored
During the process of demographic transition, as the population move from high fertility and mortality state to low fertility and mortality state, there is an increase in the working age population as the huge number of children born during the previous high fertility period move into working ages and there is a decline in the child dependency ratio due to decline in fertility and mortality
Under-five mortality declined from 359 deaths per 1000 live births in 1950 to nine deaths per 1000 live births in 2015 (Fig. 2)
Summary
The sharp fall in fertility and mortality in Oman in recent time is quite stunning and more than expected, which is largely remained unexplored. This paper examined the characteristics of demographic changes and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges for Oman. Demographic transition refers to the movement of a population from a high birth and death rate to a low and stable level of birth and death rates [1–4]. A rapid economic growth is (2020) 25:7 likely to occur if the country can transform the expanding working age population into human capital and utilize them properly. After emergence of demographic dividend, if a county cannot transform the expanding working age population into human capital and utilize that capital properly, the emerging demographic dividend can become a demographic burden for the country that may lead to socio-economic and political unrest [14, 15]. Some demographers implicitly ascribed the recent demographic transition with rising “youth bulges” in the Arab world as a major cause of recent “Arab Spring” that have drawn attention to the importance of demographic factors in development as well as politics [16, 17]
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