Demographic Security Russia and China: the Main Factors of Influence

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The integral indicator of the demographic security of Russia and China for the period 2001–2018 was calculated and analyzed. Countries are currently in a zone of social tension. The following indicators were used to calculate the integral indicator of demographic security: fertility rate; mortality rate; infant mortality rate; total fertility rate; growth rate; share of population under 15 years old; share of the population over 65; life expectancy; migration growth rate. The integrated indicator of demographic security was calculated from the average of individual indicators. It is shown that at present both countries are located in a zone of social tension. Russia's security indicators are lower than China, which indicates the presence of a larger number of factors that worsen the Russian security indicator. The factors that have the greatest impact on the decline in demographic security indicators are identified: low fertility, an increase in the share of the population over 65 years of age. It is shown that due to the reduction in the number of women of childbearing ages, the country will remain in the zone of social tension in the medium term. Adverse demographic trends may further slow down economic growth.