Demographic rates of Golden-cheeked Warblers in an urbanizing woodland preserve

Abstract

ABSTRACT Knowledge of demographics is important in conservation planning for endangered species. We monitored the endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) at a large, discontinuous preserve in an urbanizing landscape in central Texas, USA, to estimate survival and productivity. We estimated adult male survival using a spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber model that separated emigration from mortality by incorporating location data from resightings. Annual male survival varied from 0.45 to 0.67 from 2010 to 2015 (posterior mean ± SD = 0.57 ± 0.06). Sixty-seven percent of resighted males moved <100 m among years, but a large minority of males moved far enough across years that dispersal should be accounted for in future survival analyses. Mean predicted seasonal productivity varied from 2.32 to 3.18 fledglings territory−1 from 2011 to 2015 (mean ± SD = 2.46 ± 0.51). Seasonal productivity was best predicted by the proportion of total woodland land cover in a 1 km radius around the annual median locat...