Demographic intermediation between development and population redistribution in Sudan

Abstract

This article analyzes the causes of population distribution in various geographical regions of Sudan. Population distribution is a function of fertility, mortality, and net migration. These variables are primarily caused by changes in socioeconomic factors prevailing in each area. The analysis shows that the population distribution among the geographical regions is primarily shaped by the differential development actions during the last 2 decades. The regional variability of population growth and density largely reflects regional development. Provinces are classified into 3 groups according to stages of population growth. The 1st group is composed of the 3 southern provinces, characterized by the highest mortality, lowest fertility, a marginal volume of net migration, and the lowest overall population growth rate during the last 2 decades. These are the poorest provinces in terms of per capita income, education, communication, and health measures. The 2nd group comprises Dafur, Kordofan, Northern and Red Sea Provinces, which generally reflect an intermediate stage in the demographic evolution in the country. Fertility is positively correlated and mortality is inversely related to the level of per capita income, resulting in an inverse relationship between the 2 vital rates. Therefore, the natural growth will probably increase. However, there are also areas of out-migration. Their future population growth and density will depend on the extent to which the out-migration will affect their natural growth rates. The 3rd group is composed of Khartoum, Blue Nile and Kassala provinces. They have the highest fertility, lowest mortality and highest volume of in-migration. Therefore, they witnessed the highest population growth rate and population density during the period. They encompass the largest urban centers with the highest degree of modernization and family planning activities. It is postulated that their future fertility and mortality rates will decline in varying degrees and will depend on the pace of decline of each vital rate and the trend of migration. In conclusion, the regional patterns of population growth and redistribution are likely to be uneven in the foreseeable future, unless a genuine policy of regionalizing is effectively implemented.