Demographic implications of the Russian mortality crisis

Abstract

The Russian mortality crisis of 1990–1995 represents the most precipitous decline in national life expectancy ever recorded in the absence of war, oppression, famine, or major disease. Using standard demographic techniques, we develop a model Russian mortality schedule. Applying this schedule, we estimate that there were 1.36 to 1.57 million premature deaths during 1990–1995, equivalent to between 14 and 16% of all deaths recorded in Russia during that period. The deaths were distributed unevenly among the population, with approximately 70% occurring among men, and a disproportionate number among working-age individuals. Overall, the 1990–1995 crisis cost between 25 and 34 million person-years lived, an order of magnitude greater than the corresponding figure for US casualties in the Vietnam War and roughly three times the number of forgone person-years lived due to AIDS mortality in the United States during 1990–1995. The repercussions of the 1990–1995 mortality crisis in Russia and its aftermath will be felt for decades to come. We estimate that Russia's population will be about 7.5 million less in 2025 than it would have been had the crisis not occurred. The male/female ratio will also be reduced, particularly among the elderly. Perhaps the only silver lining of the crisis is that it will dampen the expected increase in Russia's elderly dependency ratio, thereby decreasing the burden on the public pension system.