Abstract
BackgroundWith an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services.MethodsThe total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015.ResultsThe TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100.ConclusionsGreece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people.
Highlights
Population aging is a universal phenomenon which is considered one of the most important issues throughout most of the world
Statistical methods Most methods for predicting population P in country c at time period t are based on the demographic balancing equation, namely: Pc, t = Pc, t − 1 + Bc, t − Dc, t + Mc, t, where B denotes the number of births, D denotes the number of deaths and M denotes net international migration
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is defined as the average number of live births that a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality [19]
Summary
Population aging is a universal phenomenon which is considered one of the most important issues throughout most of the world. The continuous decline in fertility rates as a consequence of the evolvement of interpersonal relationships and the absorption of women into the labour markets in combination with the increase in life-expectancy are causing a significant shift of global population age structure to a higher proportion of older people [4,5,6]. Population aging and life-expectancy continues to increase worldwide as both mortality rates at older ages and fertility rates decrease. According to The United Nations Population Division report, the population aged older than 60 years nearly tripled between 1950 and 2000 and will increase to more than two billion in 2050, representing 22% of the world population [7]. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services
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