Demographic features of patients with colorectal carcinoma based on 14 years of experience at Jordan University Hospital.

Abstract

BACKGROUNDColorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. In the West, the incidence has stabilized or decreased. There are only occasional published studies that describe the epidemiology of CRC and its changing trends in Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries.OBJECTIVESDescribe the epidemiological features of CRC, predict future trends and compare the results with those from other Arab and Middle Eastern countries and the West.DESIGNRetrospective epidemiologic study.SETTINGTertiary center, teaching hospital.PATIENTS AND METHODSA retrospective study covering 14 years (2003 to 2016). All cases of CRC were retrieved from the computerized system. Demographic data were recorded and analyzed using Mathematica 11.2 and IBM SPSS version 23 software. Mathematical grey forecasting models were used to predict future trends.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESNumber of cases and accumulated average over time, percentages of demographic variables and results of mathematical forecasting models.SAMPLE SIZE970.RESULTSThe male-to-female ratio was 1.5:1 and 97.4% were adenocarcinomas. The accumulated mean number of diagnosed cases doubled from 44.8 between 2003 and 2007 to 82.9 from 2008 to 2016. The accumulated annual average increased beginning in 2008. The forecasting models predicted a further increase in CRC. The mean age was 60.5 years and the median 62.0. Half of the cases presented at an advanced stage (TNM stage III or IV).CONCLUSIONCRC is increasing and is expected to increase further. Better health care planning that includes education and screening is needed to reverse these rising trends and to improve early detection.LIMITATIONSSingle institution study.