Demographic Dynamics in the Post-Soviet Countries: Results of Thirty Years

Abstract

The subject of the work is the population of the USSR and post-Soviet states, the topic is population dynamics, the goal is to develop and analyze combined indicators of population, fertility and mortality in the post-Soviet region. The priority task is to develop a methodological approach and a statistical base for analyzing the total demographic losses in the post-Soviet space during this period, in the context of assessing the consequences of the 1991 revolution. The source data are the statistical databases of the UN, Rosstat and the CIS Statistical Committee. During the period under review, the mechanism of long-term population reduction (depopulation) was launched in the republics of the former USSR. There were direct, indirect, and conditional (hypothetical) losses of the population. The article continues the discussion that began in the 1990s between supporters and opponents of economic policy in the interests of population, analyzes data on a number of post-Soviet states for 1991–2021, examines the increase in the overall mortality rate and excess mortality in the 1990s and during the COVID-19 pandemic, the decline in general and special fertility rates. The relative (hypothetical) population losses over 30 years are estimated by comparing the reporting data with the population forecast of the country and the Union republics developed by the USSR State Statistics Committee in 1990. The results obtained can be used in scientific work, as well as for teaching courses in demography, regional studies, population geography, history in higher educational institutions.