Demographic Dividend in the Middle East Countries: An Empirical Assessment

Abstract

For boosting country’s economic growth, it is essential to know “What is demographic dividend and what is its role and significance in increasing the National Income?” During the demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality, age structure of population undergoes age-structural changes. As a consequence, a stage comes when the rate of growth of population in the working ages exceeds the growth rate of total population. In economic terms, it means that production exceeds the consumption and the surplus available could be used for economic growth. It has been empirically found that the relationship between GDP growth rate and demographic dividend is positive and its impact on economic growth of a country could be miraculous. However, according to Lee and Mason (Finance and Development, 43(3), 2006), demographic dividend is a one-time opportunity, available only for short duration of 30 years to 50 years, and it is not automatic. The latter implies that for reaping maximum benefit of this period, the respective governments should assert to create employment for the new entrants to the working-age groups. This requires planning in advance to offer jobs to maximum number of youths. For the planning, it is necessary to know the expected time when the window of economic opportunity would open and how long the favourable period would last. The present chapter, using the latest available United Nations population projections made in 2017 and released in 2018, gives the estimated years of opening and closure of demographic window and thus duration of reaping economic benefits for the countries of the Middle East.