Demographic Development of Russia in the 20th‒21st Centuries: Historical and Geopolitical Dimensions.

Abstract

Features of demographic development in Russia from the 1940s to 2020 are retrospectively considered. The stages of the country’s demographic development are analyzed, including the contribution of various components to the demographic dynamics in certain historical periods. The idea of distinguishing two waves of depopulation is proposed, and it is argued that the second wave of depopulation in Russia is provoked not only by negative modern trends, but is also associated with the historical features of the demographic development of the country, namely, with the age structure of the population, deformed under the influence of various historical events, or with “demographic pitfalls,” often referred to in the literature. The contribution of supermortality to depopulation in the 1990s, called the shock stage of Russia’s demographic development, is highlighted. The features of the second wave of depopulation are noted, which are associated with a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age and a new round of increase in mortality due to COVID-19. A systematic approach to neutralizing the second wave of depopulation is substantiated on the basis of a comprehensive national demographic program, including a system of measures to create conditions for the birth and upbringing of children, support families with children, develop self-preserving behavior, reduce mortality, increase life expectancy, reduce emigration, and attract migrants of the necessary categories to Russia.