Demographic development in the Carpathian region of Ukraine in the conditions of growing the population socio-economic vulnerability

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has catastrophically exacerbated the socio-demographic problems in Ukraine and its regions. Powerful wave of forced resettlement has, on the one hand, put enormous pressure on the economic and social spheres of internally displaced persons (IDP) donor regions and, on the other hand, radically changed the demographic group in all regions of the country. The population of socially vulnerable categories has significantly increased: children, youth, the elderly, the disabled, and the lonely. Further military escalation leads to the transition of many people to the categories of vulnerable groups, while they did not belong there before the Russian invasion. It is due to the death of relatives, including loss of a breadwinner, injury, poor health, loss of housing, all property, or significant parts of it, loss of employment or business, other economic losses, inability to study, emotional and psychological disorders, etc. The majority of the population in these categories is not in a state of social maladaptation but does not have limited resources for livelihoods and social competitiveness. Timely and sufficient provision of social assistance to these socially vulnerable groups can significantly reduce the severity of socio-economic problems and provide them with a normal life quality. As of early 2022, the demographic situation in the Carpathian region of Ukraine can be described as relatively unfavorable: falling birth rate, irreversible process of demographic aging, reducing share of youth, and a high proportion of people with special needs. In addition, the Carpathian region has a much higher average household size than other macro-regions of the country, a higher share of households with children, and a higher level of employment of household members. Analysis of socio-demographic statistics in previous years and current demographic processes shows a likely acceleration in the growth of the share of socially vulnerable groups and the number of IDPs and residents of the region. The main tasks of regional and local authorities are to solve urgent problems of IDPs, expand social infrastructure, and ensure effective employment in the region, socialization of IDPs and their integration into society, and development and implementation of regional programs to improve demographic reproduction.