Abstract
AbstractThe unique contribution of this paper is to empirically compare and contrast demographic change in settlements with a population between 5,000 and under 50,000 (defined as towns) across different national urban systems in Europe with common definitions for the first time. The analysis uses a new data set based on harmonised small area data and harmonised morphological definitions of what a town is. The paper hypothesises first that a general model of demographic growth can be applied across national urban systems and secondly that regional demographic change is a significant predictor of demographic change in towns nested within those regions within this generalised model. A fixed effect multi‐level regression analysis tests the importance of town‐level and regional factors among towns from five national systems but also within two individual national urban systems. The findings suggest that national context still matters and within some national systems, regional context also strongly predicts demographic change in towns.
Highlights
Towns are an important part of the urban fabric of Europe
The paper poses two questions: firstly, have towns in different national systems undergone different types of demographic change between 2001 and 2011? Secondly, can differences in demographic change in towns be better explained in relation to their regional context or are patterns of demographic change best explained with reference to the country in which the town is located? The evidence will be presented in two stages
The analysis is based on a new data-set for towns based on aggregating harmonised small area data and a common morphological definition of what constitutes a town
Summary
Towns are an important part of the urban fabric of Europe. often associated with the economic health of rural areas (van Leeuwen and Rietveld 2011 or Powe et al 2009), European towns are found in many different types of regions (not just rural ones). In reviewing theories of small town growth, Congdon and Shepherd (1986, p1302) set out five processes underpinning the demographic dynamics of small towns in England: people led selective migration; employment dispersal and restructuring; the extension of accessibility to commuting; changes in housing availability (and tenure); and policy-led dispersal These complex stories of relative growth and decline place the process of change within small English towns within a general process of counter-urbanisation but they strongly link population growth to changes in the location of work (and jobs). The existing literature does note that the broader economic context impacts on change in small towns This can be either framed by proximity to larger cities (increasing population and changing employment profile) or being located in a rural region (declining population and fragile employment prospects). The general proposition is that the existing literature would expect change in towns to mirror that of the region in which they are located
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