Demographic Change as a Challenge

Abstract

This chapter defines the key terms demographic ageing and declining population. It refers to important indicators to give an overview of the demographic development in Germany and Poland over the last two decades. The main determinants of the demographic situation, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration, are analysed in depth. Both Germany and Poland show fertility rates below reproduction level. Due to a higher momentum of recent birth cohorts, the decline in natural reproduction is less accentuated in Poland than in Germany. Mortality trends are similar in both countries and are the main factors contributing to demographic ageing, albeit with a cohort-specific increase in the number of healthy years. Migration patterns in Germany are very volatile. Up until 2000, net immigration offset natural population decline. Changes in immigration policy in 1993 brought an end to the considerable migration surplus, thus leading to population decline in the 2000s. Germany’s reopening of its doors to immigrants since 2011 constitutes a potential trigger for population decline in Poland since Poland has a long tradition of being an outmigration country with an underdeveloped immigration policy.