Demographic change and its social and political implications in the Middle East

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the demographic trend on the breakdown of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Several scholars have pointed out that the combination of youth’s disproportionate share of the total population, the “youth bulge,” and high unemployment throws a society into turmoil. The demographic change determines not only how human activities are conducted but also how a society embarks on a political transition, such as a revolution, a state breakdown, or a regime change.I conduct two levels of empirical analysis of the political implications of the demographic dynamics in the Middle East. First, the macro-level analysis is based on cross-sectional data over two decades. This analysis will clarify whether the youth population had a significant effect on the Arab uprisings. Second, the micro-level analysis uses survey data from the Arab Democracy Barometer wave III to examine whether there is a significant correlation between youth and participation in protest. This analytical approach integrates the macro level with the micro level in order to avoid an ecological inference.My empirical analysis finds evidence to support Jack Goldstone’s revolution theory: it is built on demographic changes accompanied by rising food prices. The hypothesis is tested by examining the interactive effect of youth bulge and the deteriorating economic situation in the two decades following the end of the Cold War. The empirical tests at both the macro and micro levels identify a statistically significant effect.