Demographic and social Considerations for U.S. Rural Economic Policy

Abstract

F A demographer has anything worth saying, he welcomes the chance to expose others to the approach of his field and the implications of his insights. But this joy is tempered when he is asked to do so in years ending in 8, or even 7 or 6. For, although his wisdom may abound in the early years of a decade, much of it has become commonplace or clouded with uncertainty near the end of the decennial period. This is particularly true when the subject considered is the rural population, for, as officially defined, it can be measured only in a full census and cannot be acceptably approximated in intercensal sample surveys. However, if an opportunity for such a presentation does not come in a year ending in 2 or 3 or 4, one does the best one can in a year ending in 8. There are some facets of the rural demographic picture that it is unnecessary to demonstrate. Everyone knows that with the decline in farm employment the farm population has dropped rapidly. We have all heard that the rural population is a smaller proportion of the total population than formerly. And, for that matter, it is now reasonably common knowledge that the majority of rural people no longer live on farms or work directly in farming. Each of these facts has clearly affected the thinking of policy makers, in the last decade particularly. There are other demographic conditions, however, that are not as clear cut or as well understood either in their trends or their implications. I should like to focus on several such features that I regard as significant and in need of explication. One recurring problem in furnishing information about rural areas is the inevitable and understandable desire of policy makers to have generalizations and brevity. Yet, in the case of rural areas, national generalizations can often be misleading and potentially harmful. If there is one point about American rural demography that needs emphasis, it is that there are widely divergent demographic conditions in the rural population associated with different geographic regions and ethno-cultural