Democratization and Parliamentary Opposition in Contemporary South Africa: The 2009 National and Provincial Elections in Perspective

Abstract

South Africa's 2009 elections were characterized by an increase in electoral participation in terms of registered voters and actual numbers of voters, a resurgence of support for the opposition, and a realignment within the opposition bloc in favour of the Democratic Alliance and the Congress of the People. In addition, the vote share of the governing African National Congress declined nationally for the first time since 1994, with the party also losing support in eight of nine provinces. Despite this, the authors argue that the 2009 election results do not indicate the emergence of a viable opposition party that could seriously contest the ANC's electoral dominance in future elections primarily because voter perceptions of party images remain key to partisan support. Party images act as helpful cues for voters about whom and what parties stand for. Most importantly, these perceptions play a restrictive role, limiting the choice of parties for both partisan and independent voters. Until opposition parties are able and willing to reconstruct their party images and policy agendas they will fail to attract significant electoral support from key black African and poorer constituencies.