Democratic Transitions in Non-Muslim Societies

Abstract

Declines in rents do not always lead to civil war but may facilitate a pathway towards democracy in societies that tend to have a stock of preexisting institutions that more equitably share government resources with opposition groups. This chapter probes the effect of increases and decreases on patterns of democracy, dictatorship, and civil war in non-Muslim societies, primarily in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Countries in these regions tend to exhibit institutions that share resources more equitably relative to Muslim societies. Using case studies and corroborative statistical analysis, the chapter shows that increases in rents in Latin America and Eastern Europe strengthened authoritarian governance, but when rents decline these societies experience relatively peaceful transitions to democracy. The analysis in this chapter provides an important set of “negative cases” (relative to Muslim societies that experienced conquest) that a decline in rents do not necessarily lead to violence.