Democratic Norms, Social Projection, and False Consensus in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

We examine individuals’ views about democratic norm violations related to the peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of election results and the link between those views and broader perceptions about support for social election norms in the American public. Using data from an original national survey fielded after the 2020 presidential election, a number of important findings emerge. First, sizable majorities of Americans personally support the peaceful transfer of power (89%) and accept the 2020 presidential election results (74%). Second, individuals perceive these social norms to be widely held by the public. Respondents believe that 67% of Americans support a peaceful transfer of power and that 63% of Americans will accept the results of the 2020 election. Third, there is a strong link between personal views about these election norms and social perceptions about election norms. Consistent with research in psychology on the false consensus bias, people expect the public at large to share their views about election norms. Finally, we demonstrate that political ideology moderates the relationship between personal views about election norms and public perceptions about these norms. Among conservatives who do not support the election outcome, the perception is that only a small portion of the general public supports the election. On the other hand, among conservatives who do support election norms, the perception is that a large share of the public shares their views.