Democracy, regime change, and rivalry termination

Abstract

I examine how certain domestic political conditions affect if and when interstate rivalries end. I argue that rivalries are more likely to end (1) when regime changes occur, (2) when a rivalry involves democratic states, and (3) when rivals are democratizing. I also test the proposition that both states in a rivalry must be democratic in order for the probability of rivalry termination to increase. I assess the argument using a hazard analysis of rivalry duration, using two data sets of rivalries from 1816 to 1988, and using different measures of democracy. I find strong support for the existence of a relationship between polity change and the end of rivalries, and somewhat weaker support for the existence of a relationship between democracy and the end of rivalries. It appears that it is in fact the joint presence of two democracies in a rivalry that helps lead to their termination. However, the process of democratization appears to have little effect, either positive or negative, on rivalry duration.