Democracy and Taiwan-mainland China ties: A critique of three dominant views

Abstract

The advent of democracy in Taiwan creates regime asymmetry between Taiwan and mainland China. Given that the size asymmetry so acutely favors mainland China, does democracy make Taiwan better or worse off? Taiwan’s principal opposition party posits that democracy presents a viable shortcut to an independent Taiwanese nation-state. A second perspective, held by proactive unificationists, emphasizes that Taiwan’s democracy, through a demonstration effect, can trigger or accelerate the long overdue political transformation of the mainland, and thereby contribute to the unification of the “greater China.” The third position, held by the mainstream ruling elites, highlights the corrosive and divisive effects that democracy may generate to undermine Taiwan’s political defense against her hereditary adversary. All three views are flawed. The first two are unwarrantedly sanguine and incorrectly assume risk neutrality as opposed to risk aversion for the majority of voters in Taiwan. The third perspective is an overstatement. Democracy permits subethnic cleavages to surface, but it also provides legitimate institutional devices to peacefully deal with intricate issues Taiwan faces, namely, her identity and her ties to the mainland.