DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects

Abstract

Oil and gas construction projects are complex and risky because of their dynamic environment. Furthermore, rising global energy demand has increased the need for trustworthy risk assessment models for such projects that can provide adequate and precise policy planning. Traditional risk assessments in oil and gas construction projects do not consider the interrelationships of factors in the best-fit models. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Processes (ANP), called the DEMATEL-ANP approach, have been applied to other research disciplines to address this shortcoming. This method is able to construct a structural relationship among the different influence factors to visualize complex correlations. Thus, the purpose of this study is to showcase the DEMTAL-ANP risk assessment model to assess the overall risk factors of OGC projects. This study thus identifies the crucial risk criteria of such projects. Data were collected in 2016 through interviews with experts active in OGC projects in Iran. DEMATEL in this situation is used to determine the interdependencies’ relative strengths among the risks. The ANP method is applied to assess the relative importance of the risk factors and to determine the best strategy for implementation of a risk management program. The results presented in this study are a novel adaptation of the risk assessment methodology to OGC projects that determines the important risk factors that directly affect the project success, which in turn helps in formulation of policies for ensuring reliable energy supply planning.