Demand-Pull and Cost-Push Effects on Labor Income in Turkey, 1973–90

Abstract

In this paper we attempt to assess the changes in the Turkish production structure, and labor income in particular, between the 1970s and the 1990s. During this period a shift has taken place from an inward-looking policy towards an outward-oriented one. For our analysis we use two partially closed (or extended) input–output models. The demand-driven model is traditional for this type of analysis and examines the effects of a demand pull (for example, an increase in exports). For an open economy, however, it is not only important to investigate the effects of a demand pull, but also to examine how a cost push (for example, an increase in import prices) affects total gross output, value added, or labor income, for example. To study the effects of a cost push we introduce the partially closed supply-driven input–output model. Instead of analyzing the effects of a specific exogenous demand pull or cost push, we focus on various types of multiplier.