Abstract
We propose a double forecasting model using stochastic theory .The demand of automobile loan is the sum of all compound variables which indicated that automobile loan was credited to customer occurring in a certain period of time. Probability distribution of automobile loan was acquired using throughout probability theory. In view of such a fact, demand of automobile loan can be viewed as a conditional mathematic expectation. The forecasting model is proposed using growing function. Theoretical analysis and Case study shows that model based on conditional expectation is better than other model available with respect to forecasting demand of automobile loan.
Highlights
In China, the rapid increase in the demand for private cars is an important and sensitive issue
We propose a double forecasting model using stochastic theory .The demand of automobile loan is the sum of all compound variables which indicated that automobile loan was credited to customer occurring in a certain period of time
Theoretical analysis and Case study shows that model based on conditional expectation is better than other model available with respect to forecasting demand of automobile loan
Summary
In China, the rapid increase in the demand for private cars is an important and sensitive issue. The importance of forecasting future demand cannot be overemphasized for the purposes of both investment decisions and policymaking It has been becoming significant and difficult subject to construct a model of demand of automobile loan to describe the developing trends of automobile loan. Dagsvik and Gang Liu developed a general random utility framework for analyzing data on individuals’ rank-orderings They show that in the case with three alternatives one can express the probability of a particular rank-ordering as a simple function of first choice probabilities. Their framework is applied to specify and estimate models of household demand for conventional gasoline cars and alternative fuel vehicles in Shanghai based on rank-ordered data obtained from a stated preference survey [1]. The model accommodates governmental policies and car attributes such as price and engine efficiency
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