Demande de transport de personnes: une théorie unifiée de l'urbain à l'intercontinental Seconde partie: population de l'ensemble des voyages réalisés

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory which links some of the characteristics of trips made by individuals to the travel price and time provided by transport supply, with reference to the socio-economic context. This model appears to be able to reproduce the phenomena that are observed when there is a change in the supply or context on a given origin-destination link. However, above all, the same model can also reproduce those phenomena (changes in urban development aside) which are different in an urban and an interurban context: greater personal mobility, shorter period away from home, lower value of time among travellers, different modal split for trips, slower increase in the number of trips as a result of the socio-economic context, etc. The first part of the paper shows how each of an individual's potential journeys may be characterized by wishes concerning different aspects of the journey and how the different alternatives for the journey in a given context of transport and accommodation supply can be assessed with reference to the gap between wishes and real characteristics. The second part shows how it is possible to determine the total population of journeys made, with reference to both the context and supply. The theory has been illustrated by numerical results obtained for a variety of situations which are representative of urban and interurban areas.