Abstract
In recent years, frequent natural disasters have brought huge losses to human lives and property, directly affecting social stability and economic development. Since the driving factor of disaster management operations is speed, it will face severe challenges and tremendous pressure when matching the supply of emergency resources with the demand. However, it is difficult to figure out the demands of the affected area until the initial post-disaster assessment is completed and demand is constantly changing. The focus of this paper is to stratify the evacuation needs and predict the number of evacuees and supplies demanded after an earthquake. This research takes a large-scale earthquake as an example to analyze the characteristics of evacuation demand stratification and the factors that affect the demands of evacuees. The forecast model for the number of evacuees is selected and improved. Moreover, combining the influencing factors of materials demand and the number of evacuees, a forecast model of materials demand for evacuees is constructed. The proposed model is used in the case of the Ya’an earthquake in China to estimate the number of evacuees and the daily need for emergency supplies.
Highlights
Introduction and Literature ReviewFrom 1998 to 2017, the economic losses caused by all disasters totaled USD 2.9 trillion, with 1.3 million deaths, including 4.4 billion victims who were injured, displaced, or in need of emergency rescue [1]
Due to the existence of delays i is the standard possibility of time-varying material demanddelays, shortage set to betoθ.set σD
According to the predicted value of the number of evacuees who need basic services and medical services obtained in Section 4.3.1, the demand for different emergency services and medical services obtained in Section 4.3.1, the demand for different supplies within 30 days of the earthquake was obtained through the relationship between emergency supplies days and of the the wasFigures obtained the the within number of30 evacuees unitearthquake material demand
Summary
From 1998 to 2017, the economic losses caused by all disasters totaled USD 2.9 trillion, with 1.3 million deaths, including 4.4 billion victims who were injured, displaced, or in need of emergency rescue [1]. Further distinguish the functions of emergency facilities, which is conducive to the rapid distribution of supplies from different countries/regions after a disaster These studies ignore the impact of changes in the demands of victims in humanitarian rescue. The vertical demands are categorized through different goals in multiple stages to improve the quality of evacuation life after a disaster, and the horizontal demands of victims are mainly divided into basic living service demands and medical or psychological aid demands. The scale of the population that needs long-term shelter is calculated according to 30% of the permanent population [14] These methods ignore the law that the number of evacuees changes with evacuation demand. Marizes the research conclusions, and possible future research areas are pointed out
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