Demand-side management scenario analysis for the energy-efficient future of Pakistan: Bridging the gap between market interests and national priorities

Abstract

Pakistan is facing the worst level of energy and economic crisis of its history. The underlying reason of the economic crisis is basically due to the energy crisis. Various approaches have been adopted to tackle the energy crises which the country is facing for over 2 decades. Demand-side management (DSM) is the most potent and cost-effective option to redress the energy crisis, which, unfortunately, has been the most neglected strategy in Pakistan. DSM has the potential to save up to 10.0%–15.0% of primary energy to ensure the country’s future energy security. Laws and codes do exist, but ironically, the most vital element of DSM’s policy framework and implementation mechanism is missing. Hence, the main objective of this research is to develop a DSM model for Pakistan and analyze the reference and DSM scenarios. Low-emission analysis platform (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan’s DSM model for the study period 2021–2050. The three alternative DSM scenarios developed include energy efficiency (EEF), energy conservation (EC), and load management (LOM), and they are all analyzed. The model results estimate the electricity demand forecast of 1009.8 TWh under the reference scenario in 2050, whereas DSM tends to result in a 26.38% decreased electricity demand compared to the reference scenario. The alternative DSM scenarios also outperform the reference scenario. In 2050, the EC scenario reduces consumption by 178.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 19.20 million metric tons, the EEF scenario reduces consumption by 110.30 TWh and GHG emissions by 10.04 million metric tons, and the LOM scenario suggests reduced consumption by 101.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 6.20 million metric tons. This study concluded that the DSM must be institutionalized in Pakistan by building a robust regulatory framework and execution mechanism at the government and utility levels.