Demand shocks, financial costs, and export margins: Evidence from China

Abstract

AbstractChina’s export value dropped dramatically during the recession in 2008–2009. Surprisingly, its extensive margins increased. We extend the Melitz (2003) model by allowing exporters to rely on external finance to cover production costs. Our model shows that both intensive and extensive margins are more sensitive to demand shocks than to interest rate shocks, and products with smaller elasticity of substitution are more likely to experience an increase in extensive margin and a decrease in intensive margin during a recession when expansionary monetary policies counteract negative demand shocks. More general predictions are supported by Chinese export data in 2007–2011.