Demand forecasting of spare parts with regression and machine learning methods: Application in a bus fleet

Abstract

Forecasting the demand of spare parts of vehicles in bus fleets is a vital issue. Vehicles must operate effectively and must have a high availability rate in the fleet. In maintenance operations, faulty parts or parts that complete their lifetime must be replaced with a new one. Spare parts needed must be in inventories with the required amount on time. In this sector, there are thousands of spare parts to manage. The maintenance and repair department must operate effectively. In order to accomplish this, accurate forecast of spare parts is required. In this study, demand forecasting was carried out with regression-based methods (multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, Gaussian process regression, additive regression, regression by discretion, support vector regression), rule-based methods (decision table, M5Rule), tree-based methods (random forest, M5P, Random tree, REPTree) and artificial neural networks. The forecasting model developed in this study includes critical variables such as the number of vehicles in the fleet, the number of breakdowns that cause parts to change, the number of periodic maintenance, mean time between failure and demand quantity in previous years. The application was carried out with real data of eight (2013–2020) years. 2013–2019 data was used for training and 2020 data was used for testing. In forecasts, support vector regression among regression-based methods, decision table among rule-based methods, M5P among tree-based methods gave the best results. It has been observed that the artificial neural network produced more accurate forecasts than all other methods. Artificial neural network forecasts give the highest forecast accuracy rate and the least deviation.